The Asia Gaming Brief news agency published excerpts from JP Morgan's research note. According to the document, Macau’s gambling market is expected to grow its GGR by 5−6% through 2026.
This jump is projected to be driven by the expansion of the slot machine and mass-market segments. Meanwhile, revenue from VIP products is more likely to decline.
Central Notions from the Report
The expected growth rate is assessed as moderate yet sustainable. Additionally, industry profits will increase faster than GGR. While the latter is projected to rise by 5−6%, net earnings will likely reach 6−7%.
According to JP Morgan’s analysts, this trend will narrow the gap between the financial parameters observed throughout 2025. The regional economy has experienced a lag between EBITDA and gross revenue growth.
Regarding certain verticals, mass and slot GGR is set to increase by 7−8% in 2026. Meanwhile, VIP gambling earnings are projected to fall by around 5%. This situation reflects tougher comparisons following a strong 2025 performance.
Growth that Exceeds Expectations
Last year, the administrative region’s recovery surpassed all seasonal norms and forecasts. The strongest results were recorded in the 4th quarter, marking the highest figures for the period in 6 years.
Let us explore key facts:
- Impressive December GGR. The parameter increased by 14.8% YoY to MOP 20.9 billion (about $2.60 billion), representing 91% of the pre-pandemic level.
- Jump in full-year revenue. In 2025, Macau’s gambling business rose by 9% YoY to MOP 247.4 billion (around $30.83 billion). The result nearly doubled the bank’s initial forecast of 5%.
- Positive expert estimations. JP Morgan’s analysts revised their conclusions based on the data received, stating that December’s figures reflect the gradual ascent in expectations for the sector. All indications show the industry will continue to grow smoothly, and demand for local amusement activities has stabilised.
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