High taxes remain a major challenge for Poland’s gambling brands. Given the industry’s immense potential, the question arises: Is the government ready to revise the current fiscal model as the sphere continues to grow rapidly?
Casino Market examined the system, its impact on operators, and development prospects for iGaming, taking current regulations into account. Our team offers detailed consultations on launching and expanding projects in various GEOs.
Formation of the Local Tax Model: Historical Excursion
In recent years, the gambling business in Europe has faced growing concerns due to the increasing financial burden. The UK and the Netherlands became prime examples of how policy changes have significantly affected working conditions.
Poland, meanwhile, has functioned under one of the region’s most stringent tax models for 17 years. Nevertheless, this does not diminish the market’s attractiveness for gaming brands, which still see growth prospects in the location.
In the short term, the situation for operators appears challenging. At the same time, the potential of the Polish economy and gambling is so significant that it is impossible to ignore opportunities for further advancement completely.
Gaming regulation is influenced by various factors, such as:
- public opinion;
- political situation (elections, government attitudes, etc.);
- actual compromises between the interests of the state, businesses, and consumers.
Poland’s legislation has unique characteristics in this regard. The key law governing the sector was passed in 2009 amid a major national scandal that significantly affected society’s perception of the sphere.
The so-called ‘Blackjack-gate’ forced several high-ranking members of Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s government to resign. Leaked recordings revealed alleged corrupt deals between officials and industry lobbyists, aimed, among other things, at preventing niche tax increases.
The legislation set fixed rates for market participants:
- 12% of turnover for bookmakers;
- 50% of GGR for casinos;
- 10% of user winnings, retained by operators at source.
The system changed significantly after the 2017 reform. As a result, Totalizator Sportowy, the state-owned company, received exclusive rights. Its monopoly extended to iGaming portals and slot machines outside physical casinos. At the same time, the online sports betting sector remained open to licensed private operators.
The initiative also strengthened tools to combat the shadow sector. Specifically, authorities can now require payment service providers to block illicit websites. Nevertheless, the effectiveness of these mechanisms and their impact on the offshore segment’s scale remain debated.
Tax Liabilities as a Factor in Reducing New Launches
Certified national bookmakers note 2 interrelated issues. One is that the current fiscal burden remains high across the entire sphere. Additionally, the turnover tax for wagering projects creates significant market distortions.
Myke Foster, FEG’s Head of Commercial Gaming, is convinced that the fiscal charge on total bets is against customers. He believes this system significantly limits operators’ ability to create more attractive and competitive offers. Users feel a 10% fee on winnings but not the turnover tax, as they rarely understand how it affects odds.
The main challenge is the calculation itself. The tariff is applied to total bets regardless of the operator’s actual revenue. As a result, companies must set a higher percentage of project profit to compensate for these costs, making the legal offer less competitive than offshore ones.
Statistics Confirming the Trend
H2 Gambling Capital’s estimates for sportsbooks in 2026 are as follows:
- €1.62 billion — GGR;
- €5.07 billion — gross industry turnover;
- 32% — margin (larger than in other regional markets).
According to Ed Birkin, the agency’s Managing Director, such a house edge is set because the first 12% of total bets covers tax liabilities. Higher percentages naturally reduce overall demand for legal solutions.
Hermann Pamminger, the ECA’s Secretary General, agrees that a tax burden and requirements for authorised brands significantly limit their capabilities. Under these conditions, top-quality online services for consumers are virtually impossible without serious economic consequences.
Germany faces a similar issue, with a 5% turnover fee. Its physical casinos refuse to apply for digital licences because of the existing rate. Meanwhile, the Polish figure is more than twice as high, which worsens the burden.
Gaming Market in Figures
Key industry indicators reflect the current situation:
- Poland has one of the heaviest taxes on betting products and services in Europe. This charge is roughly comparable to France’s when calculating the effective rate relative to gross revenue.
- Total industry GGR is projected to reach €4.36 billion in 2026, of which €1.62 billion would come from the bookmaking segment.
- Channelisation of web sports wagers is estimated at 78–88%, while for online casinos, this figure is significantly lower — at around 59%.
- The state-run gaming monopoly received $21 billion in revenue per year, as evidenced in its 2025 report.
Reform’s Potential in the Case of Its Implementation
For several years, the country has discussed transitioning from a turnover-based tax to a GGR-tied model. In 2021, Polish economist and former Deputy Minister of Finance Konrad Raczkowski published an opinion paper on the matter. The document proposed replacing the current 12% rate on total bets with a fee of about 20–25% on gross revenue.
According to his estimates, the existing percentage is equivalent to approximately 55–65% of GGR. Therefore, a transition to a new format would bring the national system closer to the European average.
At the same time, such a shift would inevitably reduce state revenue. Based on 2026 turnover figures and assuming the current structure is maintained, choosing a 20% charge on GGR would almost halve the current level of profit.
Mr Birkin said that although the optimal tariff could lead to lower budget contributions, taxation should not be the primary goal of regulation. According to him, the state will initially receive less, but over time, industry growth could partially offset this difference. With the financial burden cut, operators may increase customer winnings or reduce margins.
Changes would foster the following:
- market efficiency;
- legal products’ appeal;
- gradual surge in turnover.
If the current structure is maintained, the expert says budget revenues will still be lower. Mr Birkin also suggests a transition to a calculation based on NGR.
In his opinion, the main issue with the current model is that it distorts the industry’s economics. Ultimately, regulators must balance taxes with the system’s efficiency and the interests of the state, businesses, and consumers altogether.
Mr Raczkowski has an even more positive outlook on the reform’s long-term impact. He believes that the transition to a GGR-based fee could trigger massive changes:
- higher channelisation;
- next-level competitiveness of licensed offerings;
- more reasons for operators to join the legal sector, ensuring sustainable growth.
Growing Indicators Amid Untapped Industry Potential
Arguments in favour of a new tax model are complicated by the fact that the Polish market continues to expand despite strong fiscal pressure on businesses. H2 Gambling Capital’s analysts forecast that the combined GGR of the country’s digital and physical gambling segments will reach $4.96 billion in 2026.
For politicians, this dynamic may serve as an argument against revising current regulations. The issue is especially relevant against the backdrop of other liberalised European jurisdictions, where authorities struggle to guide economic growth.
At the same time, debate continues over whether Polish gambling could evolve faster if measured by gross revenue and more effectively channelled. H2 Gambling Capital’s analytical materials show that the state has remained an attractive destination for offshore operators from Central and Eastern Europe for several years.
The illicit sector remains significant. According to the Warsaw Enterprise Institute’s 2024 study, 83% of Polish players had accounts in illegal online casinos.
The situation is little better in the bookmaking vertical compared to iGaming:
- Analysts estimate the overall web gambling channelisation at 75.1%.
- The figure for online betting stands somewhere between 78% and 88%.
- The same indicator for internet-based casinos is significantly lower — 59%.
Despite a more solid position, sportsbooks also face competition from illicit operators. Zdzisław Kostrubała, STS’ Vice President, said the unregulated niche’s share in Poland doubled from 2017 to 2025. For a jurisdiction of this size, it is a significant revenue loss. The funds are inaccessible as mechanisms are not yet effective at bringing users and operators into the legal sphere.
Mr Foster notes that EU countries are currently actively reviewing their approaches to taxation and oversight. Nevertheless, no universal solution exists. He believes that regulators in Poland, Central and Eastern Europe, and even globally need to pay more attention to the threat posed by shadow platforms.
Prospects for Initiating Online Casino Liberalisation
Even without changing the tax model, the industry could significantly change its economy through a more loyal and open approach from the country. The key obstacle remains Totalizator Sportowy’s monopoly status. The company has exclusive rights to web casinos and already brings a stable income to the treasury.
It has existed since 1955. The corporation was created in the post-war period, in part to finance the restoration of Poland’s athletics infrastructure. Because of stable contributions, the prospects for abolishing the monopoly remain uncertain.
Radosław Kietliński, Totalizator Sportowy’s Management Board Advisor, assessed the likelihood of liberalisation as low. In his view, the illicit segment does not depend directly on exclusive state ownership: unauthorised brands continue to serve the nation as long as they meet demand.
The expert believes one of the most effective tools to combat the offshore economy is limiting payments related to unregulated portals. At the same time, surveys show public support for the current model remains quite high.
Population’s Attitude Towards Gambling Services
Ariadna’s study, prepared in 2025 for the Adam Smith Centre, focused on Polish opinion towards gaming and the current regulatory system. It found that 50% of respondents support maintaining the state monopoly, while only 16% oppose it.
Industry representatives hold a markedly different position. Mr Foster believes exclusive state ownership may explain the illicit segment’s stable presence. He notes that the demand for web casinos in Poland remains high regardless of whether private operators are allowed. It only shifts to unauthorised brands when no other favourable options exist.
Users know about offshore platforms and notice their ads on social networks, including TikTok and Instagram. Consumers do not always see the lack of a licence as a sufficient reason to refuse such services. A ban on large, already well-known brands in the Polish market, such as FEG, SuperBet, and STS, may not eliminate demand but only redirect it to shadow offers.
Mr Foster does not commit to predicting how likely industry liberalisation is. Nevertheless, he believes the regulator should consider it a tool for reducing unregulated activity. The most logical step would be to offer niche opportunities to established brands willing to comply with laws.
This approach would allow simultaneously:
- expanding the legal vertical;
- strengthening healthy competition;
- granting the state more market control.
Political Background: Impact on the Gaming Industry
The main obstacles to gambling liberalisation and tax reform in Poland are ultimately more about public decisions than market economics. Therefore, the parliamentary elections scheduled for 2027 could potentially become an important moment for the sphere’s further development.
For now, neither of the country’s largest political forces is unequivocally aligned with the sector’s interests:
- Platforma Obywatelska (ruling party) supported a bill that would increase the tax on winnings from 10% to 15%, but President Karol Nawrocki later vetoed it.
- Prawo i Sprawiedliwość (opposition) opted to implement a state-monopoly model from the beginning.
- Konfederacja Wolność i Niepodległość is the only faction, in experts’ view, with the most significant reform potential, as it confronts exclusivity and high taxes in the business sector. Yet it lacks votes to reach leading positions.
Furthermore, casino reform is not currently a priority. The authorities are now more focused on larger national issues, including defence and security. Against this backdrop, amending gaming legislation remains secondary.
Successful Examples in Other Countries: Influence
Finland’s gambling laws could serve as a good reference point. The state has abandoned its monopoly and is transitioning to a licensing system. If this reform succeeds, it could support similar steps in other European nations, including Poland.
Mr Foster hopes that this experiment will serve as a positive example. Other EU members are considering similar changes or are already moving in that direction. He believes it could lead to a more coordinated approach across the continent.
Key insights and controversies related to the initiative:
- Diverse context. Direct comparisons are difficult because countries differ significantly. In Finland, the monopoly itself has supported the transition to gambling licensing, and lawmakers are already openly discussing selling the state’s stake in the industry. In Poland, such readiness is not yet evident.
- Political background. The public context of past years also plays a role. The Blackjack-gate scandal happened 17 years ago, but its aftermath still affects the approach to the industry. Therefore, the government may need to be especially careful to avoid the appearance of overly close ties with business representatives.
- Shadow economy factor. The growing illicit segment could increase pressure for reform. If current regulations fail to control demand effectively, the case for revising restrictions would become stronger.
Mr Foster believes that further liberalisation could benefit not only operators but also the state. It may attract new foreign investment, increase fiscal revenues, and give authorities greater control over niche companies’ activities.
The Main Things About Poland’s Gaming Reform Prospects
The national gambling segment retains strong potential and continues to develop. Nevertheless, a strict tax system and a state monopoly on online casinos limit opportunities for private operators.
Currently, the local industry is characterised by 3 main features:
- The substantial fiscal burden reduces the legal sector’s competitiveness. Bookmakers pay 12% of turnover, while casinos invest 50% of GGR. This model forces companies to charge higher margins, worsening conditions for customers and strengthening illicit platforms’ position.
- The market is growing, but a significant portion of demand remains outside the lawful field. The total gross revenue of Polish gambling is projected to reach $4.96 billion in 2026. Yet up to 83% of online casino fans use offshore services, while the authorised share is estimated at 59%. There is significant untapped potential to develop the regulated segment further.
- Reforms are possible, but for now they remain primarily a political issue. A transition to a 20–25% charge on the GGR is being considered as an alternative to the current system, although in the short term it could reduce government revenue.
One possible step would be to liberalise online casinos, following Finland’s example. Nevertheless, the state monopoly, public support for the existing model, and the lack of reform among political priorities do not yet allow for rapid change.
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