Prediction Markets: Growth, Structure, and Impact on the Sportsbook Sector

Recent research shows that the value of leading prediction platforms already exceeds that of the 2 largest US sports betting operators. One of them is Flutter-owned FanDuel, with approximately $18 billion, and the other is DraftKings, with around $11 billion.

This situation indicates a rapidly growing interest in the prognosis segment, despite persistent regulatory risks and ongoing litigation surrounding some industry participants. Nevertheless, many experts believe the hype regarding prediction platforms may be overvalued, and the niche itself may be just another financial bubble with limited potential.

Casino Market’s specialists analysed recent data and trends to assess the sector’s current state and potential future scenarios.

Prognosis Resources and Sportsbooks: Turnover Ratio

One compelling argument for the growth of such websites was H2 Gambling Capital’s research on the 2026 Super Bowl. According to the study, the volume of bets on prediction platforms allegedly amounted to $1.6 billion. Meanwhile, traditional bookmakers gained approximately $1.4 billion. Nevertheless, the agency calls such a comparison “nonsensical.”

In reality, relying solely on general criteria does not provide a complete understanding of the actual situation. The differences between the prognosis market and the sports wagering sector become apparent when analysing individual disciplines and turnover structures.

David Huffman, Sporttrade’s COO, provided a more detailed analysis. In the article, he considered not only the overall bid volume within websites but also the distribution of trading operations across event categories. According to published estimates, golf and futures markets’ handle account for 5% to 20% of the total, while classic sports like football — 45–55%.

Based on this data, H2’s analysts concluded that prediction projects generated approximately $800 million in equivalent bids during the Super Bowl. Amid traditional betting platforms’ $1.4 billion, this result still seems massive. Yet the agency explained several other nuances that further reduce the figures that exchanges actually generated.

Difficulties in the Comparison of the 2 Verticals

Complete, transparent statistics on the volume and structure of wagers on prediction portals do not yet exist.

Because of this, the media often conflates the following Super Bowl metrics:

• season futures;
• daily trading amount;
• stakes directly on the match;
• bids on accompanying entertainment, etc.

Another complication is that many such markets are available exclusively on prognosis resources and are not offered by traditional bookmakers. In particular, the issue addresses beyond-industry amusement categories, such as music events or live performances. Thus, a superficial comparison of the sports betting segment and prediction alternatives often leads to a distorted picture.

H2 calculated that exchange contracts on the Super Bowl itself reached $633 million. The pool included match results and MVP/prop stakes, the same as classic operators offer. Meanwhile, futures brought in $704 million, and entertainment — $301 million. These sectors are not part of the calculation pool or are not accessible to licensed brands, so there is no competition here.

Considering the average 50% conversion rate for total wagers across classic disciplines, prediction websites earned just $317 million in equivalent. With this figure amid the $1.4 billion from certified US bookmakers, the difference now looks clearer. When adjusted for comparable metrics, prognosis markets account for only around 18% of traditional betting handle.

Structural Advantages of Prediction Platforms

Given distinct product models and valuation methods, it is increasingly difficult to estimate the 2 verticals equally and determine their true influence scale. This factor also complicates an accurate assessment of the extent to which exchanges can compete with classic bookmakers.

Another nuance is regulatory and geographic accessibility. Despite uneven legal oversight, US-based prognosis markets offer services across many states. At the same time, common brands are lawfully present in only a handful of the country’s regions, accounting for approximately 35%.

Here are some of H2’s estimates and calculations for prediction platforms in the field:

1. These projects have the potential to generate 2–5 times more revenue (x3.5 on average) in jurisdictions with limited or no competition from certified bookmakers.
2. The vertical will gain approximately 65% of profits in states without a legal betting market and 35% in the locations where authorised operators are present.
3. These figures result in $110 million in equivalent handle in regions with licensed products (35% of $317 million).

One more growth factor is the age limit. Engagement in prognosis deals is permitted from 18. Meanwhile, access to bookmakers’ services in most US states is restricted to 21+. This difference creates an additional potential audience expansion totalling about 5% of the US adult population aged 18–20.

Changes in the Structure of Demand

Currently, around 1% of American online bettors voluntarily limit their niche activities. Nevertheless, some of these self-restricted users may legally migrate to prediction platforms. As a result, extra traffic is being directed to the segment, even without accounting for differences in margins.

For web bookmakers, the average hold is around 10%, which delivers the hypothetical Super Bowl GGR of $141 million. Regarding exchanges, the declared 1.1% deliver the equivalent revenue of $2.4 million (1.1% of $221.6 million, which is 35% of $633 million), just 2% of the entire market.

Similar proportions are observed in other disciplines. For instance, during the Masters, the top US prediction platforms recorded about $700 million in volume, but when converted to equivalent handle, the figure drops to $30 million. By comparison, traditional operators processed around $230 million, accounting for 88% of the total.

Golf: Promising Area for Prognosis Markets

This discipline is considered one of the most favourable for developing exchanges due to its structure. The multi-day tournament format creates conditions for regularly opening and closing positions, generating a stable flow of trades throughout the event.

In traditional betting projects, golf activity is typically measured as an aggregated pool for the whole contest. A more detailed analysis by micro-markets is used rather sparingly in such models, primarily because bookmaker products are often focused on outcomes.

In the prediction segment, the situation is different: platforms earn money by increasing overall turnover and by charging commissions on each deal. Therefore, the greater the intensity on the website, the higher the final GGR. Industry estimates indicate that current revenue is around $2.7 million, representing nearly 10% of the US scope.

Kalshi’s peak transaction statistics also confirm impressive dynamics:

• 97 million — record set last year;
• 18 million — figure for the 2026 Super Bowl week;
• 22 million — financial operations throughout the Masters week.

These numbers are not the largest in the market’s history, though. For instance, Betfair processed up to 120 million trades per day at its highest, the best result that still stands in the industry.

The Main Things About Prediction Platforms’ Competitiveness

Major analytical reports and publications often feature eye-catching figures, but the reality of this sphere is much more complex and requires a careful approach to comparison.

For a balanced assessment, it is useful to highlight key aspects:

• The concept of prognosis markets has existed for a long time, but is currently undergoing a vigorous digital expansion.
• Exchanges and bookmakers operate using different product models and are not always directly comparable.
• A significant part of all event contracts extends far beyond traditional sports.
• Prediction resources form a separate ecosystem that does not replace classic wagering offerings.
• Segment growth is driven not only by betting volumes but also by accessibility, improved interfaces, and audience expansion.

In the current environment, the prognosis sector should be viewed as an independent niche with its own economic and development models rather than as a direct competitor to traditional bookmakers.

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